Terraforming Mars: Cost of a VP

What to Buy

Last post looked at how VP are scored and their cost. Summarizing the results below:

Item	Number	Points each	Ind. Cost(MC)	Total Cost(MC)
Ocean	9	1	9	162
Temperature	19	1	14	266
Oxygen	14	2	23 (with greenery)	322
Totals	42	56		750

Next step is to determine the money value of a VP. The goal here is to achieve two things:

• "Normalize" the cost of all the cards to give an accurate determination of the card's values, which let's us determine...
• Which action is relatively "best" to take in terms of earning VP.

To start the evaluation, a baseline needs to be created. For this, imagine a game played with two simple rules:

1. Only permit Standard Projects,
2. Only spend mc to end the game. (greenery, Temperature and Water).

How much would each VP cost? This provides a good starting point to determine the value of each card, resource, and even the location of map board spaces.

Weighted Average

To figure this out, use a technique called weighted average (or Weighted Arithmetic Mean).

One wrinkle in Terraforming Mars is Greenery tiles. Greenery tiles provide 2 VP instead of 1 VP. Thus, a greenery tile will yield slightly better on average VP than, say, Temperature. Overall, its not difficult to figure out (the values are already in the graph above). To do so, divide the Total Cost (750) by the Total VP (56).

This yields: 13.39 MC/VP!

 But, what about...

The number above assumes purchasing every VP earned throughout the game. Terraforming Mars has a little "bonus" system which changes things up a bit. If Temperature is increased first, an Ocean tile gets placed for "free". Similarly, increasing Oxygen first yields a "free" Temperature. These bonuses change the amount of money spent. In fact, there are four scenarios to figure out:

1. Least Efficient Terraforming: Pay for everything.  
2. Semi-Efficient Terraforming 1: Pay for All Heat, 8 of 9 Oceans, and All Oxygen
3. Semi-Efficient Terraforming 2: Pay for All Oxygen, All Oceans, and 18 of 19 Heat
4. Most Efficient Terraforming: Pay for all Oxygen, 18 of 19 Heat, and 8 of 9 Oceans

Doing an analysis on each scenario creates the following table:

Least Efficient:	13.39
Least Semi-Efficient:	13.07
Most Semi-Efficient:	12.91
Most Efficient:	12.28
Average:	12.915

Normalized vs Actual Cost

To simplify analysis, a value of 13mc will be used as the baseline cost for a single VP. This is the "Normalized Cost", where everything is measured from this "normalized" value of 13mc/VP.

"Actual Cost" is how much something would cost to normally generate. For example, while 1 Temperature has a "Normalized Cost" of 13mc, the "Actual Cost" for Temp is 14mc as indicated on the Standard Project's Chart.

Effectiveness

From these two costs it is possible evaluate a "Return" rating, which is simply the Normalized Cost divided by the Actual Cost. In a manner of speaking this is the "return on investment" for performing a specific action. Looking at the Standard Projects which generate Victory Points, we have the following chart:

	Actual Cost	Normalized	Return
Greenery (w/ oxygen)	23	26	1.13
Greenery (no oxygen)	23	13	0.57
Temperature	14	13	0.93
Water	18	13	0.72

1 Greenery may be played to generate Oxygen, or after Oxygen is maxed, thus the two entries.

The greater an Action's Return, and with no other external considerations, the more valuable the Action. Thus, from the chart, and with no other factors affecting it, Greenery when the Oxygen is not capped provides the greatest Return than all the other options. If one had 28mc to spend and could only spend it on Standard Projects, it would be smarter to purchase a Greenery tile than all other options listed.

Summary

We learned the following from the above:

1. Cost of a VP = 13mc
2. "Actual Cost" is the stated cost to perform an Action
3. "Normalized Cost" is the cost evaluated against the accepted cost of a VP.
4. "Return" is a measure of relative value of an Action, with the better actions having higher Return, if no other considerations exist.