HIS - Ottomans - Turn 2 Preparing for the Rest of the Game

Turn 2 - Preparatory Work

Ottoman Position

By turn 2 the Ottomans should have taken Belgrade and, once completed, ended their turn immediately, This should leave them with a sizable army and an extra card in hand to begin the turn.  They may, or may not, have pirates in play which can be used to "raid" non-war players, or as a threat to focus players' attentions to their naval units.

The question is: Now what?

Tempting Buda

Like Turn 1, Turn 2 should be a preparatory turn for the Ottomans.  Many players will immediately want to attack Buda.  It is there and seems an easy to grab target.  However, conquering Buda will place the Ottomans at war with the strongest European power in the game: the Hapsburgs.  Depending on how things are going with France, England, and the Protestants, this may not be ideal.

The Danger of an Early Buda Attack

If the Ottoman player attacks Buda on Turn 2 they have two potential routes: through Szegedin or Mohacs.  Of the two, Szegedin is the "safest" in the sense the Hapsburgs cannot access it and cut it off, permitting the armies in Buda to retreat if attacked.  Mohacs, however, provides more strategic flexibility, allowing the Ottoman player more access routes to Europe.  Both options will require 3 cp.

Assaulting Buda through Mohacs or Szegedin.  Szegedin is unassailable,
but if Mohacs is not taken, it will revert to Hapsburg control allowing for a rapid counterattack by the Hapsburgs on Belgrade

Ideally, the Ottoman player would take both cities and then capture Buda, but this requires more CP (5 cp) of movement and requires splitting the Ottoman army.  Keeping the army together is possible, but requires an even greater amount of CP (6 cp).  Even at full power the Hapsburg Power can a quick response, and stiff resistance, from the Hapsburg player.  Depending on how the battles go, the Ottoman player will find himself facing a parity in forces with the Hapsburg player and a long grinding war whose outcome is uncertain.

"Buda Can Wait" Strategy

Instead, I prefer for the Ottoman player to not rush the attack.  Instead, the player should consolidate all the Hungarian lands on Turn 2 and focus on diplomatic efforts.  If the cards in hand permit it, give up a card to the French to support their efforts, which will most likely be against either the Hapsburgs or the Papacy.  This is fine for the Ottoman player as both are direct enemies the Ottomans must face eventually.  In this strategy, the French helps wear down the Hapsburg/Papacy player without risking your forces.

If diplomacy fails, or if sufficient cards permit, the Ottoman player can assault the Knights of St. John at Rhodes.  Success means the Knights are no longer a threat and the Ottoman naval units may be moved to Coron where they may lend support by sea.

In this approach, the Ottoman player should end Turn 2 not at war with any power, in a consolidated position to launch attacks against the Papacy, Hapsburg or Buda, have 2 extra cards in hand to begin the next turn, and weaker opponents due to other player's wars.

An Ideal Turn 2 for the Ottomans.  Whom and how will the Ottoman's attack?
Buda from Belgrade?
Naval assaults to capture fortresses along the Mediterranean (making Piracy easier)?
Or Naval Assaults into Italy (against Papacy or Hapsburg)?

One other benefit of delaying the attack on Buda is the Piracy card.  The fall of Buda to the Ottomans is virtually inevitable.  In any field battle the Ottomans should be able to crush Buda, and given their special "war loss" conditions, they are easier to beat than a normal city-state.  If the Ottoman player waits until Piracy comes out, the Ottoman player will be one step closer to drawing another card, making the fall of Buda even more appealing.

The Ottoman player can even move (or place with their Home Card) armies on the fortress at Scutari, threatening a naval invasion of Italy or an overland invasion through Venice.

Conclusion

For me the Ottoman's Turn 2 seems as predetermined as Turn 1.  The Ottomans should consolidate their territory, build their army, remove unnecessary threats (knights), and threaten attacks from multiple angles.  I feel this position is stronger for the Ottomans than the direct attack on Buda.

So, for me, the real decisions of play for the Ottomans occur on Turn 3: Who and where to attack?

What is your opinions?

HIS - Ottomans - Strategy - Knights of St John

While the Knights of St. John remain in play there is a constant possibility of another player playing the Knights of St. John card.  If the Knights of St. John are in play when the card is played, the Ottomans will lose 1 card from their hand.  Additionally, after Piracy is played, the Knights roll 1 die to sink corsairs if the piracy is in an adjacent sea zone.

The odds of the Knights appearing in an opponent's hands is roughly around 30% or less.  Thus, the Knights results in the loss of three cards per game on average.  The problem here is they can seriously disrupt any plans the player attempts in the middle of the Ottoman's turn.

Dealing with the Knights

The main way to deal with the Knights is to assault their position take over Rhodes.  Removing the Knights effectively requires a full two impulses and 4 cp:

• Move ships to a sea zone - 1 cp
• Move 5 troops, and a leader, to Rhodes - 2 cp
• Assault Rhodes - 1 cp

Consequences of Removing Knights of St. John

Removing the Knights adds a degree of certainty to the Ottoman's turns.  It makes it easy for the Ottoman player to ensure any plans they have will proceed as expected.  Additionally, if a player wants to bring the Knights back into play it will cost the player 2 cp.

Opinion

In my opinion, I prefer to remove the Knights rather than have them remain in play.  If played against the Ottomans, the loss of a card can seriously disrupt the Ottoman's plans.  This can leave the Ottomans in a seriously weakened position at the most inopportune time.  It is possible to leave the Knights alone throughout the game and they may have no effect.  But their threat is something to consider.

HIS - Ottomans - The First Turn

The Ottomans have a very specific action for their first turn: Attack Belgrade.  No other option makes sense.

Why take Belgrade?

At the start of the turn, the Ottomans gain 3 cards (plus Home Card).  To gain a 4th card they only need one key.  From their territory there are only two keys to attack: Belgrade and Buda.

Buda: Not an Option

Deciding to attack Buda first is suicidal for the Ottoman player.  First, Buda requires 4 CP  minimum to initiate the combat:

• 2 cp to cross the pass to Sezgedin, 
• 1 cp to convert Sezgedin to Ottoman control,
• 1 cp to move and siege Buda

Unlike most spaces, there will be a field battle to control Buda before there is an assault.  The Ottomans should have no trouble taking Buda if they bring all their armies (reinforced with their Home Card).  This is, however, an expensive option compared to Belgrade.  Furthermore, Buda cannot be reinforced during the Spring Deployment phase as it is across a Pass.

The other reason is the fall of Buda will cause a war with the Hapsburgs on Turn 1, who will gain all the Hungarian spaces as friendly allies: including Belgrade.

This puts the Ottomans at a war with the militarily strongest power in Europe.  Furthermore, troops left in Buda are isolated with expensive reinforcement costs.  Lastly, with control of Belgrade, the Hapsburgs not only have the Ottomans contained, but are able to begin launching attacks directly into Ottoman territory.

On Turn 1, with the worst cards played against them, the Ottomans have an 80% chance of Success at taking Buda.  Long term, however, attacking Buda before Belgrade is unsound.

Belgrade

Belgrade on the other hand is only 1 cp away.  It will take another card to initiate the siege, but with a full assault of Ottoman troops, Belgrade will almost certainly fall.  Lastly, the fall of Belgrade will not cause the Hungarians to ally with the Hapsburgs.

Optimum First Turn

The optimum first turn for Ottomans is as follows:

• Spring Deploy all troops from Istanbul to Nezh (or Nicopolis)
• Round 1- Play Home card to add 4 regulars to troops to Nezh/Nicopolis (bringing total army size to 12 Regular and 1 Cavalry).
• Round 2 - Play any card to place Belgrade under siege (If 3cp or higher, can build more units)
• Round 3 - Play a card to Assault Belgrade.

Optimum Attack Path

If the above method is used, the assault will have at least strength 8 during the assault to Belgrade's 2.  Facing only one enemy, this assault will succeed 96% of the time.  If it fails, a second assault needs to be made which, even with maximum casualties, will succeed 91% of the time.  Thus, the odds of success in this methodology is greater than 99%.

With these odds, Belgrade will fall!  The Ottomans now draw an additional card each turn.  The problem now becomes, what to do on the following turns now that the door to Europe is open.

Obstacles

This opening move is so standard no other player should feel threatened by it.  However, there are three possible cards which might disrupt the Ottoman plans:

• Knights of St John
• War in Persia
• Revolt in Egypt

War In Persia and Revolt in Egypt

 War In Persia and Revolt in Egypt both remove armies from Ottoman forces, but the Ottoman player may choose the armies.  In this case, the first three armies can come from Athens, Salonika and Edirne.  If the Ottoman Home Card is not played for armies (like it should be), the Ottomans will find themselves attacking Belgrade with 4 troops.  This still leads to a 80% chance Belgrade ill fall on the first assault if both are present.

Knights of St John

The other card is Knights of St. John, which causes a loss of 1 card from the Ottoman hand.  This simply reduces the number of turns the Ottomans have to capture Belgrade from two to one.  Still, the odds are 96% of taking Belgrade if the Home Card is played for armies.  If not played for armies, the Home Card provides odds of taking Belgrade to 92%.

With the above, Ottomans should always take Belgrade on the first turn.

HIS - The Ottomans - Strength and Weakness

Suleiman - Leader of the Ottomans

The Ottomans

The Ottomans are the Dark Green forces in Here I Stand.  Like all factions in the game, they have particular strengths and weaknesses.  Of the factions, the Ottomans have the most straight forward of goals: Military Domination.  Furthermore, the Ottomans have an "optimal route" in their first turn, something the other factions do not exhibit.  In some ways this makes them rote in their play style for the first turn or two.  After that, the strategy really begins to open up for them.

In my opinion, this makes the Ottomans the easiest faction to play for new players.

Strengths

Ottoman Home Card

The greatest strength of the Ottomans is their ability to amass a great army and raise troops quickly.  Sulieman, by himself, can move up to 12 armies, and with Ibrahim Pasha this brings the total to 18.  The Hapsburgs could achieve a maximum of 16, while France and England could bring a maximum of 14 armies, Protestants 12, and Papacy 4.

The other powers are less likely to achieve their maximum number than the Ottomans.  The Ottomans Home Card allows them to raise 4 troops per turn (at a cost of 5 cp), and should be used almost exclusively for this purpose every turn.  Adding to their strength is the fact the Ottomans are immune to all the "Mercenary" cards.

Weaknesses

The Ottomans have two major shortcomings: Their starting position and their "External Concerns": the War cards.  The War cards are an annoyance.  At the most inopportune times they can result in troops being sent "off board" to fight some battle.  A total of 9 armies can be lost to the War cards in this way. It is up to the player to determine if they need the troops or not.  In some ways, it is better to not resolve the War cards so that they cannot be played again, but if both cards are played it can result in a loss of 9 troops, which can take a full turn to regain.

Perhaps the major issue of the Ottomans is their positioning and the terrain surrounding them.  The only effective land route the Ottomans have is through Belgrade.  This creates a natural choke point which limits their movement.  The Ottomans must defeat Belgrade to advance on the Hapsburgs or into Italy.  Furthermore, any offensive they launch can quickly grind to a halt if Belgrade falls, so it must be defended.

Choke Point Belgrade

Piracy 

Once Barbary Pirates comes into play the Ottomans have the option of Piracy.  Although Piracy is effective, it is not a guaranteed Victory point gain.  However, Piracy can, and should, generate a few victory points for the Ottomans.  We will discuss Piracy, and other options, in more depth later.