Favorite Position Polls
I have read many results regarding favorite start positions. Similarly, I've seen many polls concerning this same question. I wanted to go a different route and see what position everyone felt was most likely to lose. I then compared this to the list of games.
Results
There are several results to show. First, I collected (from boardgamegeek), the list of everyone's favorite position. I also show the results of the poll taken here which was: Which position was least likely to win the game. Lastly, I show the results of the games
From the poll results (admittedly there were few votes), it appears everyone suspects the Second place is most likely to lose.
Game Results
From the games there does seem to be a slight trend indicating the fourth position may be at a slight disadvantage. Getting "mathematical", most of the positions are less than 1 standard deviation from the average and very close together, indicating there doesn't seem to be any advantage. However, the fourth position is over 1.4 standard deviations away. Although this is by no means conclusive proof, it does seem to provide evidence the fourth position has a disadvantage.
So, what do you think of the results and why you believe the fourth position has this indication? Do you believe this trend will continue for 3-player and 2-player games? If you want to vote, I've created an continuous "unending" poll on boardgamegeek here: http://boardgamegeek.com/thread/763847/most-unpopular-starting-position
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