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Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Terraforming Mars: Breathing Filters--and Minimum Requirements






Breathing Filters

Tags Science


Add. Req Min.: Oxygen 7%

Card List Cost 11


Costs Actual Normalized Max Norm Min Norm
Req. Cost 0 0 0 0
Effect Cost 0 0 0 0
Final Card Cost 14 9 9 9





Value



VP Value 26 26 26 26
Income Value 0 0 0 0
Final Profit(Loss) 12 12 12 12





ROI 85.71% 85.71% 85.71% 85.71%
Breakeven Turn Immediate


Notes

Breathing filters, like Trans-Neptune Probe(TNP), is a fairly simple card, but with 1 minor addition: the minimum requirement of Oxygen of 7%. However, Breathing Filters provides a much greater return.

Requirements

Important Oxygen Levels per Turn

Mins & Maxes

Many cards have either minimum or maximum requirements. These requirements can either be "Eventual" requirements or "Optional" requirements. Of these two requirements, a card can have either a Minimum (min) or a Maximum (max) of these requirements.

"Eventual" Requirements are one of the three requirements for Terraforming Mars: Water, Oxygen, or Temperature. These are Eventual requirements because they will eventually be met as they are required to win the game.

"Optional" Requirements are any requirement other than those needed to win the game and may include have a certain number of Tags in play, a certain number of cities, or some other special requirement.

Minimum Eventual Requirements (MinER) Cost Calculation

Important Ocean Levels per Turn
Cards with Minimum Eventual Requirements are not much of a requirement in terms of calculating cost. A MinER will eventually occur, so the card can be played. The major effect of an MER is the card may be delayed in being played, but the play is eventual (thus the name of the card). This effect may cause the card to either not generate as much as expected depending on when the requirement's average play occurs.

Maximum Eventual Requirements (MaxER) Cost Calculation

Cards with a MaxER are a true requirement. These cards must be played before the requirement is met, or the card is reduced to a value of zero. For cost purposes, the card's value is assumed to be only if the card is played before meeting this requirement.

Optional Requirements

Optional requirements are based on the probability an event occurs. For example, if a card requires one Science Tag, it is necessary to calculate the probability of a science tag being played. Grabbing these cards early is risky as the additional card may not occur and the 3mC spent on keeping the card may be lost. For calculation purposes the cost is based as a percentage probability the card may be played.
Important Temperature Levels per Turn

For some requirements (namely Venus levels), this number is a rough estimate as data collection on it is incomplete at this time.

Sunday, January 27, 2019

Terraforming Mars:Trans-Neptune Probe (and Template Explanation)

Trans-Neptune Probe

Tags Science, Space (Base)

Add. Requirement -


Card List Cost 6


Costs Actual Normal Ma Min
Req. Cost - - - -
Effect Cost - - - -
Final Card Cost 9 9 9 9





Value Actual Normal Max Min
VP Value 13 13 13 13
Income Value - - - -
Final Profit(Loss) 4 4 4 4





ROI 44.44% 44.44% 44.44% 44.44%
Breakeven Turn Immediate


Explanation of Card Template

Tags: Lists the tags found on the card. Generally, tags will be considered to have a value of "0". Instead, they will impact the cost of cards (explained when that becomes necessary). The card's set will also be displayed here.

Add. Requirements: Additional requirements based on the card.

Card List Cost: The cost of the card as listed on the card

Costs/Value: Costs are measured in 4 types
Actual- This is the cost as measured from the card (not normalized).
Normal-  Normalized costs are the cost normalized to a standard cost of 13. This is explained in earlier articles.
Max-The maximum normalized value possible. This valued is found if the card is played as early as possible for those cards which have an income per turn.
Min-This is valued as if the card were played as late as possible.

Req. Cost-This is the calculated cost based on the card's requirements.

Effect Cost-Some cards have an ongoing, or effective, effect which has some cost calculated here.

VP Value-VP Value is the measured increase based on Victory points.

Income Value- Measures the value of the card based on its income. As mentioned in earlier articles, this is the income based on an average play of the card.

Final Profit/Loss-This is the card's final (initial) gain or loss from playing the card.

ROI (Return on Investment)- This is the card's calculated return based on the card's cost. For those mathematically inclined, this is found using the following formula: [Gain-Cost]/Cost.

Breakeven- This is either how many uses, or how many turns, are needed for the card to pay for itself.

Any notes for the card will appear after This point.

Notes
Trans-Neptunian Probe is arguably the simplest of cards, and the reason it was chosen first. It has no requirements, generates 1VP, and has 2 tags. That is all there is to it. How does it fare against other cards? A question for future articles...



Going Forward

The cards in TM will be broken up by set, effect, and complexity. It is hoped to display two or three cards at a time in an article.

Thursday, January 17, 2019

Terraforming Mars: Standard Projects: City

Standard Projects

All Standard Projects were used to determine the value of a VP and form the "Actual" cost/value for a given item. However, here we will evaluate each individually to determine the value of the City Standard Project.

City

A city may be created for 25mc. In return, it will generate 1mc per turn, plus a bonus resource if placed on particular areas of Mars. Looking at the lowest cost can provide some insight into the value of the basic city. For this analysis, the city will be built on a non-benefit tile and not adjacent to a greenery tile.

A city built on Turn 1 will provide a maximum of 10mc. Thus, the final "value" of a city is -15mc if not built on a special tile. If built on an "average" turn, it will generate only 4.5mc.

Cost: 25
Production: 1mc
Max Value: -15mc
Avg Value:  -21.5mc

Building Locations

The first thing to improve the value a city is to look at the specific locations on Mars. The best location will vary depending on the map. The maps were evaluated in an earlier article, providing an average return.
Map
Basic:    +2.82mc
Hellas:   +2.78mc
Elysium:+2.95mc

For all intents and purposes, it is possible to say the value is 3mc.

Greenery Value

The city value at 2 greenery tiles is 11.
Every Greenery tile adjacent to a city provides that city with a 1VP bonus. The maximum possible is 6. Thus, the value of a city increases more based on the greenery tiles. The chart below shows the breakdown of value based on the number of surrounding greenery tiles.

The break even point for getting one's money back on the standard project occurs just over the 2 Greenery mark. Therefore, a city must be adjacent to at least 3 Greenery tiles to turn a 'profit'.

General Statement

Looking at just the city value without any other terms, can lead to some poor decision making. Many times it is necessary to review the overall board positioning and other strategic considerations. That said, its important to understand the absolute basic value of the city to truly understand the depth of the decision being made.

Corporate Bonus

Corporations will be looked at in depth later, but it is important to mention a particular corporation when speaking of cities, Tharsis Republic. Tharsis Republic grants a double income for placing a city and an additional 3mc immediately. Adding in all the benefits, Tharsis building a city on turn 1 will generate a 1mc benefit to the player of Tharsis. Overall, this is minimal in comparison to other options available to the player.


Turn 1-Tharsis
Cost to Build -25
Regular Income +10
Tharsis Income +10
Tharsis bonus mc +3
"Average" map +3
Final Value+1


Perhaps most important, Tharsis can begin to benefit from even a single Greenery tile. However, its important to realize the basic value drops off twice as fast for Tharsis than for other corporations. If Tharsis builds a city on turn 2, it will generate a return of -1mc. The chart below compares the value of building a city by turn for a basic player, and for a Tharsis player.
Tharsis vs non-Tharsis player city value comparison by turn

Conclusions

Building a city using Standard Projects on turn one is an expensive operation. The action by itself will probably not return a profit. Tharsis Republic will see a 1mc return for if the city is built on Turn 1, but typically there are much better investments to be made.

Adjacent Greenery tiles increase the value of a city dramatically. Therefore, it is the placement of greenery tiles which better dictates the value of a city rather than the income returned from the city.

Without additional cards and/or effects, a city on Mars is not practical. However, as soon as a city can be placed adjacent to 3 Greenery tiles, it becomes instantly profitable. Even on turn 10, a city adjacent to 3 greenery tiles breaks even instantly.

From an efficiency standpoint, placing a city is generally not a good decision without adjacent greenery tiles. Even then, there are typically more efficient options available than the Standard Project to generate VP. As the cards will show, most players can perform better decisions than placing a city down.

Tharsis Republic can consider placing a city down adjacent to a greenery tile a profitable decision until turn 8 of the game. After that, there is a minor loss of ROI if it is a single greenery tile. Placing a tile next to 2 greenery tiles will always return a profit to Tharsis, but the amount will differ based on the game turn.

This analysis looks at placing Standard Project city from an efficiency standpoint (i.e. mc/VP). Viewed in this light, placing city is mostly loss unless placed next to 3 or more Greenery tiles. However, Strategic considerations (such as map access, blocking opponents, etc.) may override this advice, but it is necessary to understand the value the player is giving up when to properly place a value on that strategic city placement.